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How climate change threatens the global hop supply
The world of beer is facing an unprecedented challenge as climate change threatens the very ingredient that gives it its distinct character — hops. With rising temperatures, more frequent and severe droughts, and unpredictable weather patterns, the global hop supply is in jeopardy, potentially leading to significant repercussions for the beer industry.
A recent study [1] highlights a sharp decline in hop yields due to climate change. Europe, a major hop-growing region, is expected to see a decrease of up to 19 percent in harvested hops by 2050. This decline is attributed to the increasing frequency of droughts and heatwaves, which disrupt the delicate growing conditions required for high-quality hop production. Alarmingly, regions like Germany and the Czech Republic have already experienced yield drops of 21 percent and over 40 percent, respectively, in recent years [2].
Beyond yield reductions, the quality of hops is also deteriorating. The alpha acid content, which contributes to the bitterness and preservative qualities of beer, is decreasing across all major hop-growing regions. This trend poses a dual threat: less hops and a diminished quality of those that are harvested. As a result, brewers face the prospect of not only higher costs but also potential changes in the flavour profiles of their beers.
To counteract these challenges, it will be necessary to expand the area of aroma hops by 20% compared to the current production area to compensate for a future decline in alpha content [1]. However, this raises critical questions about where this additional land will be found. Expanding hop production areas may lead to deforestation, further exacerbating the effects of climate change. Thus, sustainable solutions are imperative.
In the UK, efforts to develop new varieties of organic hops resilient to climate change are showing promise. Trials in East Sussex and Worcestershire are underway, aiming to produce high-quality, sustainable crops that can withstand the changing climate. Greg Pilley, managing director of Stroud Brewery (The Drink’s Business, 2024), emphasizes the importance of these initiatives, noting that the UK’s increasingly wet and humid summers are making traditional hop growing more challenging. By focusing on climate-resistant varieties, UK farmers and brewers can secure a more sustainable future.
The Society of Independent Brewers (SIBA) supports these efforts, highlighting that UK-grown hops now offer superb modern aromatic qualities without the environmental cost of airmiles. Neil Walker of SIBA [3] points out that purchasing locally grown hops is an excellent way for breweries to reduce their carbon footprint and adapt to climate change. He warns that without adaptation, conventional growers may face the risk of going out of business.
Globally, the impact of climate change on hop production is evident. In 2022, the U.S. saw a 12 percent decline in hop production, with Washington’s Yakima Valley, responsible for three-fourths of U.S. hops, hit hard by drought. This “perfect hop storm” [4] has led to a 50 percent increase in the cost of certain hop varieties, putting further pressure on brewers.
Innovation and adaptation are crucial. In the UK, researchers Dr Cockerton and Dr Klara Hajdu [5] are working on breeding new hop varieties with enhanced drought and disease resistance – similar research is being carried out in most major hop-producing countries. These efforts aim to ensure that the beer industry can continue to thrive despite the challenges posed by climate change.
The looming hop shortage underscores the urgent need for sustainable agricultural practices and innovative solutions. By investing in climate-resilient crops, expanding sustainable hop production, and fostering global collaboration, the beer industry can navigate the uncertainties of climate change and ensure that the taps never run dry.
If you would like to know how to adapt your business to climate change, please get in touch: https://shiftenvironment.co.uk/contact/
References
[2] How climate change could affect hop growing and beer brewing | The Grocer
[3] Why new organic hops could save British beer from climate change (thedrinksbusiness.com)
[4] Beerknews / What’s the haps with the hop shortage? – Beerknews
[5] Fears for the future of the great British pint of beer – BBC News